Comprehensive 2007 Trend Map
The fine folks at Now and Next and Future Exploration Network have published their Trend Blend 2007+, which is a visual map of trends in 2007 and beyond.
This map is a comprehensive look at mega-trends arounds us. I find these graphical depictions of trends fascinating. While no map can tell you everything, they are valuable for triggering ideas at a glance.
I will offer one piece of commentary on the map, only because the founder of Future Exploration Network, Ross Dawson, invited people to “run with it” and offer up suggestions. OK, Ross, since you issued the invitation, let me give this bit of input:
I’d like to see a closer relationship depicted among RFID, the death of cheques (checks, for all you in the United States), digital cash and contactless payment on the map. Those topics are in my mind clearly related. Yet the map does not demonstrate the relationships very well or really at all.
RFID, which stands for radio frequency identification, is the underlying technology that makes contactless cards possible. Contactless cards are credit cards such as the MasterCard PayPass that allow you to simply wave the card or tap the reader in order to register payment, instead of taking the time to swipe the card or hand it to a cashier.
Digital cash and the death of cheques are cause and effect. And one could make the case that RFID and contactless payment cards are moving us faster and faster away from using paper bills and coins and checks, toward using 0′s and 1′s to move money (digital cash).
Yet when you look at this map, if it weren’t for the fact that I write about RFID, I wouldn’t have a clue about the relationships. So, my input is that I would like to see the map more clearly indicate such relationships.
View the Trend Blend 2007+ map in full size (PDF file). See what you think. (And, yes, that resemblance to the London subway map is not coincidental.)
Cartoonist, Andertoons Cartoons
Author of Business Plan Pro
Co-author of Barack 2.0
I agree with your assessment Anita, this is an interesting mashup but the map is so busy it is hard to make sense of it. I wonder what might be gleaned from it if we could turn on and turn off each of the legend items to simplify viewing and make more direct comparisons… I might play around with that to see what I can see.
Would you be interested in showing the relationships on the ‘Digital Cash’ end?
[...] A couple of days ago I published a link to a very interesting Trends Map by some futurist forecasting folks. I added my comments about the financial section of that map. [...]
[...] Challenging Business Environment Ahead December 23rd, 2006 by gregbd Tags:Business Owners Only Business Owners Professional Development Entrepreneur Human Resources ManagementI commented on Anita’s blog that her post titled, “Comprehensive 2007 Trend Map” analysis was interesting and yet I could not fully understand what she was saying and so Anita accepted my challenge by creating her own “Money Trends for 2007 and Beyond” chart which shows some interesting trends. As promised, here is my contribution to the conversation Anita. When I look at my chart and your chart together I see something interesting correlations. Observations On Anita’s “Money Trends” Chart As I look at Anita’s trend chart I see interesting correlations between the rise of virtual currencies, death of coins, and paper currencies with the rise in the number of Echo Boomers. Business owners and entrepreneurs better wake up and smell the coffee. Understanding Demographics and Generational Differences Times have changed and the youth of today do not think like you would expect. Check out Gen Y: These Young People Know What They Want and make sure to check out what Jeff Cornwall says in a great post that contrasts the Baby Boomers and Echo Boomers (baby boomers kids) expectations, values, and ethics. VIA Generational Differences in Expectations Of The Workplace Schwarzkopf Generation, 11.5 million Schwarzkopf Generation (born before 1946) The youngest of this group turned 60 in 2006. Many do not have computers and never will, as my own Mother says “I do not have enough time, I do not know if I would use it.” no matter how much I tell her how easy it is to use, she has no interest. For those that do have a computer, having Internet access is ‘nice’ but not something they would miss. They do not use IM and opening and sending attachments in an email can represent a significant challenge for them. They get their news from newspapers, radio, and TV. Baby Boomers, 61.5 million Baby Boomers (1940-1964) The single largest demographic segment (age 43-67 in 2007) were not first to come online but they have quickly adopted the internet to help them find health, financial, and participate in online support groups. They see Instant Messaging (IM) as a distraction and do not really like to use it and prefer sending and receiving email. Generation X, 43.5 million Generation X (born 1965-1977) Age 27 – 41 in 2005 and are the generation that has lived in the shadow of Baby Boomers. Some have called them the ‘sandwich generation’ as they are sandwiched between the Baby Boomers and Generation Y. They are web savvy, mobile, and have the entrepreneurial bug just like the Echo Boomers (baby boomers children). Sometimes criticized as ‘slackers’, they nevertheless were widely credited with a new growth of entrepreneurship and the resulting dot-com boom. Generation Y (aka. Echo Boomers), 31.5 million Generation Y or Echo Boomers (born 1978-1989) Age 17 – 29 in 2005, this is the generation that has never known life without a persistent internet connection or a life without computers. They love Instant Messaging (IM) and manage a large list of friends via instant messaging. IM was their first social application. Many have been instrumental in innovating Web 2.0 with social applications and tools. This is the ‘Post and Share’ or IM generation and they prefer to get their news from their friends or a trusted source online. They spend 62% of their time reading, listening, and watching user generated content from their friends and trusted sources. Traditional media is dead to this ‘E’ Generation. In The Secret To Recruiting Echo Boomers I document that this net-generation is curious, intelligent, focused, willing to adapt to change, self reliant and confident. They are ready to pursue their dreams via entrepreneurial pursuits. Source: some information from the ‘Who’s Who in the Workforce’. Planning ahead is key to coping with this large change in demographics that will take place over the next decade. Potential Business Issues From my viewpoint the issues for business owners are many. Create a HR Contingency Plan to Keep the Employees You Already Have The brutal reality is that you will need to keep Baby Boomers working longer due to the small number of younger workers. This would also increase the cost of your health care insurance benefits as insurers adjust for the increased costs of providing older workers with full health benefits. Plan for Increased Payroll Costs There is no doubt that one of the major strategies will be to keep baby boomers working as long as possible. Experienced workers tend to get higher salaries than their younger counterparts. Who Will Buy You Out? When you do decide that it is time to exit the business the shortage of skilled and experienced employees who have the necessary skills, experience, and financial potential to buy you out. Lower Net Return When You Do Sell If these trends turn out as expected there will be a lot fewer potential buyers for your business, which could drive down the amount you would get for your business. If you are like many business owners, most of your net worth will be tied up in your business. So you will want to be very conservative in your estimate of how cash you will get from selling the business. Notes About My “Significant Workforce Shortage Looms” Chart The chart in my version is not scientific but represents the general trend and changes in the working population. In late 2004 and early 2005 I was researching my first book and created a chart that illustrated trends related to Baby Boom, Generation X, and Echo Boomer population in North America. My chart shows a real shortage of available younger workers occurring between 2008 – 2020 as a result of low birth rate among Generation X (current age 21-43) and we do not see Echo Boomers (current age 17-29) in significant numbers until around the year 2015 which will create various issues for you to deal with. Share and Enjoy:These icons link to social bookmarking sites where readers can share and discover new web pages. [...]
[...] Recogo de Small Business Trends
Anita,
Today, I saw your trend chart and now I am seeing this. In your chart, you have not only mentioned the major upcoming trends but made a positive, negative relation. This chart is quiet complex already but it mainly mentioned the major issues. It did not show how they would effect each other;positively or negatively. The main difference is you take less information and present them very neat and clean and this chart brings in lots of trends subtrends and links them. If they tried to show how they are related, they would have made the chart more complex.
Hi Anita,
You blogged about my trend map a little while ago so I thought you might like this new timeline – one that works the other way around…
http://www.nowandnext.com/PDF/extinction_timeline.pdf
It’s open source so people are encouraged to add, delete, amend or otherwise play around with it
(I can supply the artwork files if required) and also please note that it’s a bit of fun and shouldn’t be taken too seriously!
Cheers,
Richard.