Today I am hosting Carnival of the Capitalists over at the RFID Weblog. Carnival just keeps getting more and more popular all the time — this week’s round-up had nearly 50 entries. Some great stuff — let me point you to just a few of the posts that are small business and entrepreneur-related:

• A Crack in eBay’s Facade? – Ezra Marbach at the China Stock Blog notes that eBay claims to be the number 1 online auction in China, but presents evidence suggesting that Chinese competitor, Alibaba’s Taobao.com, is pulling ahead and may be gaining.
• The 3 R’s of Business Plans – Rosa Say at Talking Story defines ROI, something you’ve no doubt heard of. But she also defines two new terms to consider in business plans: ROA and ROR.
• The Pun-Based Shop Name – For some light humor check out Wordlab’s post about pun-based shop names. Small business owners are notorious for coming up with some of the funniest names for their businesses — usually plays on film titles, famous lines or other phrases.

But, heck, don’t limit yourself to these few posts. Check them all out.

From Small Business Trends

China, ROA and Funny Business Names

Recently I pointed out that service industries have outpaced goods-producing industries. The vast majority of jobs in the United States are in service-producing industries — about 80%.

Here’s more about the growth of service industries. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the 10 fastest growing industries in the United States are all service industries. Go to this page for the industries expected to have the fastest growth rates through the year 2012.

Five of the 10 fastest growing are information services. Four of them are health-care services. The remaining one is a public works service (water and sewer systems).

Here is another chart with a macro view of service industries growing over the next seven years, while goods-producing industries decline.

Does this surprise you?

From Small Business Trends

More About the Growth of Service Industries

The short post I made a few days ago about religion and entrepreneurism apparently has struck a chord. Thank you for the many wonderful emails, for the comments you left, and for linking to the post.

It’s as if entrepreneurs have looked for confirmation that following the path of capitalism is not anti-religious, anti-God or anti-society.

Being self-reliant is not the same as being selfish — quite the contrary.

In a related vein, I’d like to quote a recent column by Gladys Edmunds in USA Today. She makes the point that “the smallest, most humble entrepreneurial endeavor is honorable and a great contribution to the progress of the human race.”

She quotes Booker T. Washington in the following section from the article, which in my view says it all:

“It is easily seen, that if every member of the race should strive to make himself the most indispensable man in his community, and to be successful in business, however humble that business might be, he would contribute much toward smoothing the pathway of his own and future generations.” These words were spoken 100 years ago by Booker T. Washington, founder of both The Tuskegee Institute, now known as Tuskegee University, and The National Negro Business League, known today as The National Business League.

I have quoted Washington’s statement many times and particularly to people who feel that their small one- and two-person businesses don’t count as “real” businesses. Washington realized that slavery had taught American blacks many profitable skills and trades. Things like carpentry, cooking, farming, tailoring and shoemaking were seeds for businesses that could be started at home and with little or no capital. And to utilize those skills to start even the smallest business was both honorable and the right thing to do for the advancement of the race.

The philosophy behind Mr. Washington’s words is filled with the entrepreneurial spirit, and the statement is as true today as it was 100 years ago. This message is not only for African Americans but also for all who want self-sufficiency and independence as entrepreneurs.

Read the whole article — lots of wisdom there, on several different levels.

From Small Business Trends

Entrepreneurism Helps Society

It used to be the old boy network. Powerful businessmen would take care of their own, finding good jobs for anyone who managed to graduate from the right school or move in the right circles.

Nowadays, it’s just as likely to be small business owners — with nothing to tie them together except being business owners in the same community — who take care of their own. They may offer advice to one another, help each other successfully bid on projects, provide cross referrals, and otherwise help make each other successful.

Sometimes the way they help each other defies an exact description, as noted in this article by Amy Wu in the Democrat and Chronicle. I’m quoted in the article saying there’s not an exact description for it.

But if it is working for the business owners, who needs exact descriptions anyway?

From Small Business Trends

Small Business Network Replacing Old Boy Network?

An article in the Wisconsin Technology Network gives several insightful predictions on trends to watch in 2005. Among them: globalization and outsourcing will continue unabated, and small and medium enterprises will be hot.

The prediction that caught my eye, though, is this one entitled “Boomers bolt”:

“Look for Boomers to continue to flood the entrepreneurial ranks. If you want to keep them (and demographic trends suggest you will need to) then be prepared to offer them the right mix of flexibility, challenge and rewards. All-or-nothing approaches to employment particularly for those nearing retirement age simply won’t cut it. Many older workers want to continue to work, indeed many will have to, but continuing in high pressure, all consuming roles is not an option they care to pursue. They want to do something fresh and new that allows them to draw on their deep knowledge about their work, their field of expertise, their industry and their company and its culture. New roles need to be created that keep older workers involved meaningfully but which also offer significant flexibility and choice in when and how much they work. Mentoring, consulting, and project-based assignments appeal to older workers burned out by the grind of full-time work but not ready for retirement.”

I happen to agree strongly with the writer, Tony DiRomualdo. The rise of the older entrepreneur in the United States is something we have identified as one of the top nine trends influencing the small business market (see “Graying of Small Business” at our sister site, TrendTracker.)

But if so many observers see evidence of this, why do studies indicate that entrepreneurship is the domain of younger people? Why do the statistics not bear out what our observations are telling us?

For instance, the 2004 Global Entrepreneurship Monitor study — released just last week — suggests that entrepreneurship is for young adults:

The first observation is that it is young people between 25 and 34 years of age who are the most active entrepreneurial group of the population regardless of the wealth of the country from which they come. After the age of 35, all populations show a steady decline in entrepreneurial activity. While some minor differences can be observed between individual countries, the pattern has remained unchanged since GEM’s inception in 1999.

I have a theory about this. My theory is that Baby Boomers often engage in non-traditional forms of entrepreneurship that may not be captured adequately in studies. Older entrepreneurs may engage in part-time endeavors, such as consulting, writing, and other activities more in the nature of part-time employment than entrepreneurship. Also, it is not uncommon to find Baby Boomers investing in entrepreneurial ventures as angel investors, buying franchises, and buying businesses. These activities are entrepreneurial in their essence, but don’t fit the pattern of a typical startup. Some of the Baby Boomers involved in the activities may not even identify themselves as entrepreneurs.

Whether my theory is correct remains to be seen. I will continue gathering information about this trend.

From Small Business Trends

Trend: Baby Boomers Flood Entrepreneurial Ranks

Jackie Huba, co-author of “Creating Customer Evangelists,” posed an interesting question on her blog earlier this month, “Would you listen or subscribe to a business podcast?”

I responded that yes, I would, saying:

“To really answer it, I think you have to expand the question to include all forms of audio over the Internet.

Last year around this time I saw a prediction that Internet radio would be hot. I was skeptical (actually I laughed). Well, it turns out that 2004 saw a mini-explosion in all things audio-related.

The thing is, varying terminology and related technologies are being used to describe similar end results (i.e., an audio file). When you expand the question in this way, you realize that audio is really hot right now — but it might be called podcasting, Internet radio, conversations, audio blogging, recorded interviews, MP3 downloads, or other terms. But they are referring to more or less the same end result: an audio file that can be downloaded and listened to.”

As you look around you see that the same citizen journalism movement that blogs have brought about, has started to extend to audio. Several factors are fueling this movement: (1) wider availability of broadband connections, (2) cheaper and better computers equipped with speakers and hefty hard disk space, (3) the convergence of telecommunications and computing making it easy to record audio and turn it into a computerized file, and (4) the stunning popularity of the iPod device.

Everywhere you look, it seems, individuals and small businesses are starting their own Internet radio programs and doing podcasts. A small number are focused on business topics.

Some have been at it a while, such as TDavid’s Script School, and IT Conversations. Others started last year, including Blogosphere Radio and authors doing 800-CEO-READ podcasts. Still others have started recently with their own business podcasts, including The Vision Thing. Each one has a different focus and different format … but they are all examples of citizen broadcasting.

As regular readers here know, Steve from Small Business CEO and I started an audio offering over at SMBTrendWire.com. Our niche is small business. So far we have five 45-minute recordings of small business experts on a variety of interesting topics. We do a live audiocast every two weeks, which is also recorded and then becomes available for listening anytime of the day or night using Windows Media. A podcast format is in the works and will be available shortly.

There is a revolution going on in broadcasting — a citizens’ revolution. This citizen broadcasting movement is not just occurring on the Internet. There also appears to be a broader movement influencing traditional radio that “gives radio back to listeners,” as Ben McConnell notes. I predict that in much the same way blogs are changing traditional media forever, the citizen broadcasting movement will change traditional radio.

The year 2005 should be interesting for the citizen broadcasting trend.

NOTE: if you do any citizen broadcasting on business topics, I invite you to leave a comment below with the URL where readers can find your audio.

From Small Business Trends

Podcasting and The Citizen Broadcasting Trend

With seniors aged 65 and older the fastest growing segment of the American population, expect to see daycare centers for the elderly crop up on Corporate campuses. Instead of dropping off their children during the workday, employees will bring their aged parents.

The growing population of senior citizens will also mean new business opportunities. Think errand-running businesses to serve elders.

It’s not just aging Baby Boomers driving workforce changes. Globalization and the Internet are two other catalysts of change. One of the most significant changes is already well underway. A new category of worker is emerging, one that is willing to work more flexible hours to help companies meet the 24/7 demands of today’s marketplace. The 8-to-5 routine is going by the wayside. Almost one third of the working population now has flexible work hours. Technology such as cell phones, laptops and other portable tools make it possible.

To read more about these trends, check out the report “Challenger Future Workplace Trends: 2005 and Beyond” by Challenger Christmas & Gray, the outplacement firm. I emailed them asking if they had any trends predictions and was pleasantly surprised when I got an immediate email with a copy of the report. It makes fascinating reading. And all I can say is that work has changed dramatically since I started in business, and I expect it to change even more over the next decade.

Editor’s Note: This is the fourteenth in our series of articles on 2005 trends predictions. We are comparing and contrasting trends predictions from different sources that will impact the small business market in 2005 and beyond. Here is our running list of trend prediction posts:

Anti-Trending and Other Trends for 2005
Entrepreneur’s Top Trends for 2005
Small Business is Itself a Trend
Top Technology Trends for 2005
Top Global Consumer Trends
Inc.’s Trends for Entrepreneurs in 2005
Top Travel Trends for 2005
More Top Trends for 2005
The Small Business Advocate’s 2005 Predictions
Top 2005 eBusiness Trends
Entrepreneurship Trends for 2005
Health and Family Trends for 2005
Powersports Industry Trends for 2005

From Small Business Trends

Workplace Trends 2005

By John Wyckoff

V-Twins

Harley-Davidson has dominated the V-Twin market for decades. The custom manufacturers have entered the field with high-quality, reliable, eye catching bikes, albeit at high prices, ranging from about $30,000 to over $100,000. The two big makers of such bikes, Big Dog Motorcycles and American IronHorse, are sold out for just about all of 2005. I expect to see this market continue to grow.

Watercraft

This market has been trending downward for some time. The cause? Mostly caused by the way users abused the environment, thereby triggering adverse legislation. I expect to see some stability as the warm weather approaches. It will take more aggressive dealer input to convince customers to obey both the laws and the social obligations to allow others to enjoy the water too.

Scooters

The “echo” generation (children of the Baby Boomer generation) appears to love scooters. Once they were made and sold primarily in Europe. The narrow roads and limited parking there made scooters practical. In the U.S. scooters have been selling in college towns and high-density urban areas. Now the Japanese companies have raised the bar by producing large displacement (up to 650cc) scooters that can cruise at well over the Interstate speed limit all day. They made these units capable of carrying a large quantity of “stuff” in well-designed storage areas.

ATV

Once again the Feds are getting anxious. The news reports of children getting hurt or killed is the first wave indicating that there will be hearings followed by legislation. Once again the dealers who sell these units must do more to educate their buyers. If the Feds keep up the pressure I expect to see this market flatten out after having grown dramatically for the past decade.

Performance Bikes

“Mine’s faster than yours.” “Mine can take corners better than yours.” These are the buying paradigms of the young, testosterone-driven wannabe racers. The manufacturers have complied. Of the 40 fastest production vehicles in the world, 38 are motorcycles. Insurance companies are well aware of this and are setting the premiums accordingly. These over 1,000cc bikes will continue to sell but I don’t see any growth in this market, only a shift in market share based on who has the fastest for that particular period of time.

Dirt Bikes

The dirt bike products are better than ever. More power, better handling, better suspension, superior brakes. The problem? Land closures. That means fewer places to ride. While private land is still available in many parts of the country, events like the enduro, which require miles of terrain, are becoming less available. The other problems are noise and restricted trail use.The European makers continue to produce “race ready” off-road bikes. The Japanese and now the Chinese supply most of the units purchased by the hobby or casual rider.What will the future hold for this segment? I expect a small decline over the next few years.

Touring Bikes

The race to see who can produce the largest displacement engine is about over. The rider has come to the conclusion that size does matter but that size and associated weight matter in a negative way. Fuel injection, electronic gadgets, cushy adjustable ride have been available for several years. Older riders who are in no hurry to get anywhere ride these bikes.The biggest displacement bikes will continue to be relatively steady while the smaller displacement (600cc to 750cc) will gain in sales. They are just as fast and easier to handle in heavy traffic.

Mid-sized Bikes

It seems little manufacturer attention to this segment has been a factor in the rather uninspiring offerings in this market. While popular in other parts of the world, the American market seems to prefer performance or touring bikes. The better performing scooters may be encroaching on this segment too. I don’t expect to see much in the way of movement in this small segment.

Dual Sport

This segment of bikes ranging from 250cc up to 1,000cc continues to grow. The bikes either favor road or off-road, depending on the manufacturer’s focus. They don’t excel in either category. However, the riders have a tendency to be more casual and not as strongly competitive. The western United States with hundreds of miles of dirt roads are ideal territory for dual sport bike riders. Expect continued small increases in sales of this niche.

Pocketbikes/Pit Bikes

This niche has great potential. Professional racers, RV owners and children alike seek it. The price range is as wide as the appeal. Although some are sold outside the usual powersports dealerships those inside the industry have a better chance of survival. These bikes are prone to being abused meaning they require more service. Big boxes and auto parts outlets are ill-equipped to handle after the sale service.

Utility Vehicles

These 4-wheel, side-by-side seating vehicles are in demand by farmers, ranchers, hunters and other enthusiasts. Demand continues to outstrip supply. Yamaha’s Rhino has raised the bar with their offering. Kawasaki, John Deer, Polaris and others are beginning to hone in on the demand for creature comforts and performance demanded by the buyers. I expect this market to continue to grow as the supply of product grows.

Conclusion

The year 2005 and 2006 should show continued but small growth overall. The exchange rate, which favors American exports, is an inhibitor. The prices of all imported niche bikes can be expected to increase beyond the inflation rate. That’s just my opinion. But as Dennis Miller says: “I could be wrong.”

* * * * *

John Wyckoff is a true guru of the motorcycle industry. A sought-after speaker at motorcycle events and frequent contributor to the motorcycle press, he is the founder of Intersport Fashions West. He is an expert on the motorcycle business and dealerships and is known for having his finger on the pulse of the motorcycling public. He is the author of Mind Your Own Business, 2nd Edition: The Complete Guide to Profitable Powersports Dealerships.

Like this article? Read more by John Wyckoff:

Motorcycle Industry Learns Women Rule

How Harley Davidson Lost its “Cool”

From Small Business Trends

Powersports Industry Trends for 2005

Carnival of the Capitalists, that weekly business event that travels from blog to blog, will be arriving here at Small Business Trends next Monday morning, January 17, 2005.

Carnival of the Capitalists rounds up and showcases business articles from a variety of excellent sites.

I invite all business bloggers out there to submit a recent post that you would like to see get a little extra visibility. No slackers, now, you hear? I’m expecting to see entries from all of you. So get those fingers typing….

To submit your entry, please use this handy Carnival of the Capitalists submission form.

From Small Business Trends

Carnival of the Capitalists Arrives Monday!

It’s another of our 45-minute audio Conversations with small business experts over at SMB TrendWire. Register to listen LIVE to Dr. Soper’s trends, and you can even email us questions to ask him.

Date: Thursday, January 13, 2005

Time: 4:00 PM, Eastern US time

And remember, if you miss the LIVE event you can always listen to the recorded archive starting on Friday.

We hold these Conversations every two weeks. We already have some great recordings from prior events, including:

From Small Business Trends

Top Economic Trends for Small Biz